EHORN EVRI PLATFORM

Electoral Violence Risk Intelligence Dashboard

Real-time regional monitoring and intelligence analysis on electoral violence risks, hotspot escalation patterns, incident concentration and public democratic stability indicators across election environments monitored through the EHORN Virtual Election Situation Room.

Use the navigation buttons to move through the intelligence dashboard section by section. This keeps the page focused and avoids a long continuous scroll.
Kisumu Severe
119.0
Total Reports 207
Critical 79
Kisumu demonstrates recurring electoral violence monitoring patterns with sustained incident reporting activity and observed escalation indicators across the monitoring timeline.
Nairobi High
67.5
Total Reports 70
Critical 34
Nairobi demonstrates recurring electoral violence monitoring patterns with sustained incident reporting activity and observed escalation indicators across the monitoring timeline.
Mombasa Elevated
44.0
Total Reports 41
Critical 5
Mombasa demonstrates recurring electoral violence monitoring patterns with sustained incident reporting activity and observed escalation indicators across the monitoring timeline.
Wajir Elevated
27.5
Total Reports 6
Critical 5
Wajir demonstrates recurring electoral violence monitoring patterns with sustained incident reporting activity and observed escalation indicators across the monitoring timeline.
Eldoret Elevated
25.0
Total Reports 10
Critical 5
Eldoret demonstrates recurring electoral violence monitoring patterns with sustained incident reporting activity and observed escalation indicators across the monitoring timeline.
Live Escalation Intelligence

Electoral Violence Monitoring Trends

Critical: 96 Warning: 14 Normal: 134
🚨 KISUMU escalation trend detected · 🚨 NAIROBI intimidation-related incidents observed · 🚨 SIAYA mapped reports updated · 🚨 Violence hotspot monitoring active · 🚨 Regional democratic resilience tracking operational ·
Critical Incidents
96
Warning Incidents
14
Normal Reports
134
Temporal Violence Intelligence

Monthly Electoral Violence Trend

This chart tracks incident frequency and severity patterns over time, helping identify months with elevated reporting activity, critical escalation and recurring violence-prone periods.

Year-on-Year Violence Comparison

Comparative Electoral Violence Trends

Compare electoral violence reporting activity between years to identify escalation cycles, recurring hotspot periods and evolving incident intensity patterns.

Structured Intelligence Layer

Actor, Driver and Response Intelligence

This layer classifies monitoring reports by likely actors, violence drivers and reported security response patterns to support deeper electoral violence analysis and early warning interpretation.

Actor Intelligence

Unknown Actor 1370 reports · 66 critical
Organized Youth Mob 148 reports · 62 critical
Security Actor 97 reports · 48 critical
Political Actor 21 reports · 7 critical
Unknown Actor 1 reports · 0 critical

Violence Drivers

Political Rivalry 260 reports · 87 critical
Uncategorized Driver 1246 reports · 49 critical
Security Action 78 reports · 39 critical
Identity Tension 24 reports · 8 critical
Economic Extortion 19 reports · 0 critical
Land Resource Conflict 9 reports · 0 critical

Security Response Tracker

Not Reported 1477 reports · 90 critical
Security Present 113 reports · 52 critical
Arrests Reported 35 reports · 35 critical
Delayed Or Failed Response 7 reports · 4 critical
Crowd Dispersed 4 reports · 2 critical
Not Reported 1 reports · 0 critical
Verification and Forecasting

Confidence, Verification and Escalation Forecast

This layer separates verified intelligence from lower-confidence reports and highlights areas where repeated critical reporting may indicate possible escalation.

Confidence Layer

High 1636 reports
Medium 1 reports

Escalation Forecast Watch

Kisumu Immediate Watch

Peak escalation score: 119.0; 79 critical reports observed across the monitoring timeline.

Nairobi High Watch

Peak escalation score: 67.5; 34 critical reports observed across the monitoring timeline.

Mombasa Early Watch

Peak escalation score: 44.0; 5 critical reports observed across the monitoring timeline.

Wajir Early Watch

Peak escalation score: 27.5; 5 critical reports observed across the monitoring timeline.

Eldoret Early Watch

Peak escalation score: 25.0; 5 critical reports observed across the monitoring timeline.

Timeline Replay Intelligence

Electoral Violence Timeline Replay

Replay mapped electoral violence activity across time to observe escalation cycles, repeated hotspot periods and shifts in incident concentration.

August 2022 Critical
244
Reports
58
Critical
19
Warning
September 2022 Low
30
Reports
6
Critical
2
Warning
October 2022 Low
15
Reports
1
Critical
3
Warning
November 2022 Low
5
Reports
2
Critical
0
Warning
December 2022 Low
13
Reports
3
Critical
0
Warning
January 2023 Low
6
Reports
4
Critical
0
Warning
February 2023 Low
22
Reports
4
Critical
1
Warning
March 2023 Elevated
71
Reports
22
Critical
6
Warning
April 2023 Low
40
Reports
7
Critical
2
Warning
May 2023 Moderate
40
Reports
11
Critical
4
Warning
June 2023 Low
13
Reports
3
Critical
2
Warning
July 2023 Low
47
Reports
9
Critical
2
Warning
August 2023 Low
15
Reports
4
Critical
1
Warning
October 2023 Low
18
Reports
5
Critical
1
Warning
November 2023 Low
9
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
December 2023 Low
2
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
January 2024 Low
4
Reports
1
Critical
2
Warning
February 2024 Low
13
Reports
6
Critical
3
Warning
March 2024 Low
5
Reports
4
Critical
0
Warning
April 2024 Low
1
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
May 2024 Low
7
Reports
2
Critical
2
Warning
June 2024 Low
9
Reports
4
Critical
0
Warning
July 2024 Low
12
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
August 2024 Low
8
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
September 2024 Low
5
Reports
0
Critical
2
Warning
October 2024 Low
2
Reports
0
Critical
1
Warning
December 2024 Low
5
Reports
4
Critical
0
Warning
January 2025 Low
6
Reports
3
Critical
1
Warning
February 2025 Low
12
Reports
4
Critical
2
Warning
March 2025 Low
3
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
April 2025 Low
7
Reports
3
Critical
0
Warning
May 2025 Low
14
Reports
4
Critical
0
Warning
June 2025 Low
13
Reports
5
Critical
0
Warning
July 2025 Low
5
Reports
1
Critical
0
Warning
August 2025 Low
5
Reports
0
Critical
1
Warning
September 2025 Low
7
Reports
3
Critical
0
Warning
October 2025 Low
2
Reports
0
Critical
0
Warning
December 2025 Low
2
Reports
2
Critical
0
Warning
February 2026 Moderate
24
Reports
13
Critical
1
Warning
March 2026 Moderate
28
Reports
14
Critical
2
Warning
April 2026 Elevated
37
Reports
20
Critical
2
Warning
May 2026 Low
9
Reports
4
Critical
1
Warning
Intelligence Source Monitoring

Observer Intelligence Feed

Separate monitoring streams allow analysts to compare observer reports, citizen submissions, WhatsApp signals and verified incident intelligence across the electoral environment.

Whatsapp Active Feed
3490
Reports
468
Critical
3490
Verified
Latest activity: May 23, 2026 10:01
Kobo Active Feed
1
Reports
0
Critical
1
Verified
Latest activity: Apr 26, 2026 15:47
AI Narrative Engine

Automated Electoral Violence Intelligence Brief

Kisumu currently presents the highest consolidated electoral violence risk signal in the monitoring dataset. The dominant classified driver is Political Rivalry, while the most frequently detected actor category is Unknown Actor. The latest critical incident signal was recorded on May 23, 2026 09:53. Analysts should interpret this brief alongside verification confidence, media review status, recurring hotspot patterns and county-level escalation trends before public reporting.

Highest Risk Area Kisumu
Dominant Driver Political Rivalry
Actor Signal Unknown Actor
EVRI Heat Intelligence

Electoral Violence Heatmap

Geographic visualization of electoral violence hotspots, mapped incident concentration and county-level escalation indicators derived from verified monitoring reports.

County Intelligence Cards

Explore county-level risk profiles

The cards below summarize each county’s electoral violence risk score, severity level and monitoring activity. Click any county card to open a detailed intelligence profile with latest reports, mapped incidents and county-level escalation context.

Administrative Area

Nairobi

critical
100.0
Total Reports 34
Critical 18
Warning 0
Mapped 34
Last reported incident: May 16, 2026 12:23
Administrative Area

Kisumu

critical
100.0
Total Reports 123
Critical 53
Warning 8
Mapped 123
Last reported incident: May 13, 2026 15:24
Administrative Area

Kisii

low
25.0
Total Reports 9
Critical 3
Warning 2
Mapped 9
Last reported incident: Feb 24, 2026 10:01
Administrative Area

Homa Bay

low
19.0
Total Reports 5
Critical 3
Warning 1
Mapped 5
Last reported incident: Apr 15, 2026 12:01
Administrative Area

Siaya

low
18.0
Total Reports 6
Critical 3
Warning 0
Mapped 6
Last reported incident: Feb 22, 2026 13:17
Administrative Area

Mombasa

low
14.0
Total Reports 12
Critical 0
Warning 1
Mapped 12
Last reported incident: Jul 7, 2023 10:41
Administrative Area

Nandi

low
12.0
Total Reports 6
Critical 1
Warning 1
Mapped 6
Last reported incident: May 12, 2026 09:40
Administrative Area

Bungoma

low
11.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 2
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Jul 4, 2025 20:17
Administrative Area

Migori

low
7.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Aug 8, 2024 15:23
Administrative Area

Kericho

low
7.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Jun 25, 2025 14:10
Administrative Area

Busia

low
7.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Dec 30, 2024 14:17
Administrative Area

Isiolo

low
7.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Feb 19, 2023 17:49
Administrative Area

Mara

low
6.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: Mar 30, 2023 18:07
Administrative Area

Lamu

low
6.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: Aug 12, 2022 06:49
Administrative Area

Eldoret

low
6.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: May 2, 2023 10:54
Administrative Area

Samburu

low
6.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: Feb 25, 2024 14:05
Administrative Area

Kakamega

low
5.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 0
Warning 1
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Aug 25, 2022 08:56
Administrative Area

Nakuru

low
5.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Jul 19, 2023 16:08
Administrative Area

Wajir

low
5.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Aug 8, 2022 23:05
Administrative Area

Kitale

low
5.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Feb 12, 2023 06:43
Administrative Area

Kitui

low
5.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Aug 29, 2022 16:26
Administrative Area

Bomet

low
5.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 1
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Aug 11, 2022 19:26
Administrative Area

Uasin Gishu

low
3.0
Total Reports 3
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 3
Last reported incident: Aug 12, 2022 17:00
Administrative Area

Kwale

low
2.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: May 8, 2023 13:18
Administrative Area

Tana River

low
2.0
Total Reports 2
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 2
Last reported incident: Nov 4, 2023 19:52
Administrative Area

Naivasha

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Sep 7, 2022 15:12
Administrative Area

Marsabit

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Aug 9, 2022 06:30
Administrative Area

Wau

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Aug 12, 2022 12:49
Administrative Area

Kilifi

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Apr 26, 2023 20:11
Administrative Area

Narok

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Apr 30, 2023 12:47
Administrative Area

Lindi

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: May 2, 2023 09:11
Administrative Area

Nyeri

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Jul 12, 2023 12:56
Administrative Area

Garissa

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Nov 23, 2023 10:46
Administrative Area

Kilimanjaro

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Feb 13, 2024 16:40
Administrative Area

Mbeya

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: May 12, 2025 16:36
Administrative Area

Vihiga

low
1.0
Total Reports 1
Critical 0
Warning 0
Mapped 1
Last reported incident: Apr 9, 2026 14:25
County Intelligence Profile

County

Risk Level
Risk Score 0
Critical Reports 0
Warning Reports 0
Mapped Reports 0

Intelligence Narrative

Monitoring Summary

Total Reports
Latest Incident

Latest Public Incident Records

This intelligence profile highlights emerging electoral risk patterns, incident concentration and verified monitoring activity within the county.

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