Ethiopia Electoral Intelligence

About the Situation & Risk Index

The V-ESR index is a reproducible analytical indicator calculated from eligible intelligence for the selected geography and period. A higher report count does not automatically mean higher risk.

What the index measures

The current EVRI model combines severity, escalation, geographic concentration, activity/recency and verification density. County scores are calculated on the same evidence window so counties can be compared with one another and with the national picture.

Time windows and ranking

Use 7-day, 30-day, 90-day and 365-day windows to distinguish short-term movement from persistent patterns. Rankings are comparative analytical positions, not predictions of election outcomes.

Confidence and coverage

Coverage is shown separately from risk. Missing reporting is never treated as evidence that an area is calm. Where the evidence base is thin, the dashboard should be read as lower-confidence intelligence.

Human review

Automated calculations support analysis; they do not independently verify allegations or replace V-ESR human review and release controls.